Both the Russian and Ukrainian strategies are predicated on a continuation of hostilities over the coldest months. However,they will have different approaches. For Russia,the aim is to draw the war out over winter and well into 2023. A key element of this is the insertion of masses of newly mobilised troops into Ukraine to stabilise the front line. But the most important aspect of Russia’s strategy for winter is its strategic energy warfare.
Putin’s energy war,which has already affected 30 per cent of power generation capacity in Ukraine,will see heating restricted,more burst water pipes and a range of other hardships for the population. While stockpiling of warm clothing and firewood commenced some time ago,many Ukrainians are either displaced from their homes,or living in damaged residences,making them more vulnerable to the ravages of winter.
This “denial of heat” by Putin during the coldest months of the war is a deliberate strategy to both terrorise the population and to pressure the Ukrainian government for either a ceasefire or some other accommodation with the Russian invaders. But,as we have seen from the hardy Ukrainians,their resilience and very high support for expelling the Russian Army means that this is an unlikely outcome for Putin.
Putin,by now,probably hoped that his strategic energy warfare would have had a greater impact on the populations of European nations that had become reliant on Russian energy. However,a combination of new energy sources,rationing and stockpiling means that the Russian leader has not yet been able to exert leverage over Europeans to reduce their support for Ukraine. That could change,however.
The Ukrainians have fought hard for eight months to seize the initiative from the Russians in this war. They will want to continue to use the momentum they have generated with their Kherson and Kharkiv offensives and will likely use the winter as an opportunity to continue seizing back their territory.
There will be challenges,however. The coldest months in Ukraine are from November to March. Not only does this see temperatures drop below zero,but it is also a period of high precipitation (rain and snow) and shorter daylight hours. The cold saps the energy from soldiers much faster than in warmer conditions. Warm clothing,hot food and protection from the elements are essential parts of preserving a military force in the coldest months.