Henry’s arguments about the scale of policy changes that are necessary aren’t new. Similar pointshave been made by experts like Rod Sims and Danielle Wood. To a fair extent,they are even accepted – at least theoretically – by both the treasurer and the head of his department. And yet,there is a sense that such facts exist in a universe parallel to the one in which Australian politics is actually conducted. They are deferred to in much the way people these days reference biblical parables:nice to say,everyone agrees in their beautiful truths,but nobody really believes you can live that way.
They have not,in other words,done the slightest bit of damage to the consensus that continues to prevail among the hardbitten practitioners of politics,including MPs and journalists:that reform is hard,incrementalism is smart politics and deserves applause. Find a way to increase revenue by $50 billion a year,as Henry suggests? Ha. Ha.
If this divide between reality and the way our political class behaves feels familiar,it might be because this was the hallmark of the Morrison years,when facts often seemed,above all,an inconvenience. And perhaps this sense of déjà vu is not surprising,given that – as deputy director of The Australia Institute Ebony Bennettpointed out at the weekend – much of the government’s approach now is a result of its attempt to minimise political attacks in opposition. So far,its small-target campaign has been seen largely as a mildly unfortunate encumbrance that will fade with time. We are beginning to get a sense of how dramatic its effect still is,and how long-lasting its effects might be.
Which brings us to AUKUS – which,asPaul Keating reminded us last week,was supported by the Labor opposition within 24 hours of being briefed,a consequence of that small-target strategy. Here,as in the budgetary space,there is a consensus on basic facts.
The conventional wisdom is that the future is highly uncertain. There is general agreement that the previous government’s approach to China was cartoonish. It is accepted,too,that Australia has an atrocious record when it comes to submarine procurement,and that,working alongside the US,we have made plenty of terrible decisions before (Iraq,Vietnam). But somehow these facts have become separated from the consensus of those same hard-bitten practitioners that AUKUS – a far-reaching submarine procurement decision conceived by Scott Morrison,made alongside the US and aimed at China – should be doggedly pursued.