NSW Labor trailing Coalition for first time in two years

NSW Labor is trailing the Coalition after only a year in power and for the first time since early 2022 after a bumpy 12 months in government marred by accusations of jobs-for-mates as well as a bitter battle with unions over public sector pay.

Labor’s primary vote has slipped to 34 per cent – down from 37 per cent when it came to power last March – while the Coalition’s primary has climbed to 38 per cent. The Coalition’s primary was 35.4 per cent when it lost the election.

Premier Chris Minns remains the preferred premier for 35 per cent of voters while Opposition Leader Mark Speakman’s popularity has risen 3 percentage points to 16 per cent.

However,49 per cent of voters are undecided about who they would prefer to lead NSW.

NSW Labor has been leading the Coalition in the Resolve Political Monitor,conducted for theHerald by research firm Resolve Strategic,since September 2022,when its primary reached 43 per cent.

The Coalition’s slide started afterBerejiklian sensationally quit on October 1,2021,when it emerged she was the subject of a corruption inquiry. She was replaced by Dominic Perrottet.

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The Resolve results also show that support for the Greens has increased to 12 per cent since the election,when their primary vote was on 9.7 per cent.

Independents have also risen to 12 per cent (up from 8.7 per cent at the election). Nine independents were elected to the lower house in the last election.

The drop in popularity for NSW Labor comes as it clocks up its first year in power this month. It was a difficult first 12 months for the government,hit with jobs-for-the-boys accusations and drawn-out battles with the unions overpublic sector pay.

There was the earlysacking of a minister over a conflict of interest andcriticism of Police Minister Yasmin Catley for mishandling a protest sparked by the Israel-Hamas war.

Minns’ strong pro-Israel stance has also caused division as some MPs feared he was alienating key groups of voters,especially in western Sydney,where there are strong Muslim communities.

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The government also had to deal with the traffic chaos createdby the opening of the Rozelle Interchange in November,when furious commuters travelling through Sydney’s inner west suddenly found their trips to work significantly longer.

NSW Labor ended its first year by releasing its long-awaited signature housing policy,which included imposing new planning controls within 400 metres of 31 train stations across NSW as well as increased density in other areas of Sydney.

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However,the governmenthas faced a barrage of public criticism from vocal mayors,who have long been running on platforms decrying overdevelopment in their council areas.

Resolve director Jim Reed said voters expected swift change from new governments,but there was a sense that Labor was doing too little too slowly.

“Labor have continued to drop and now trail the Coalition on primary vote,which just shows how impatient voters are for action. They are intolerant of inertia,so just governing isn’t enough,” Reed said.

“When you speak to voters in focus groups,they aren’t seeing anything happening in Labor’s first year. They’re asking ‘what have they done to help me?’ I voted for more than this.”

However,Reed said Labor’s position was not unique and voters were increasingly disillusioned with politicians,including at the federal level.

“This isn’t just NSW Labor. With a cost of living and housing crisis,it’s a bad time to be an incumbent everywhere because voters expect more,” Reed said.

Federally,voters have lifted the Coalition to its strongest position since the last federal election by boosting its primary vote from 34 to 37 per cent.

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