The would-be challenger trails his coat with coy non-denials. The incumbent assures journalists he has the full support of his party.

But they have cried (or denied) wolf so many times before it’s impossible to credit them.

Scott Morrison hugged Malcolm Turnbull during one of his last press conferences and said an innocent “Me?” when asked about his own leadership ambitions.

By the end of the week he was in Turnbull’s job.

Which is not to imply that Morrison betrayed Turnbull,he simply did what we expect politicians to do - welcome opportunity when it knocks.

It’s safe to say Joyce has his ears pricked for opportunity,although he may be waiting a while.

While Joyce has the numbers within the Nationals’ party room,that is only in the event of a vote - and the numbers to bring on a spill are decidedly weak. McCormack would have to be approached and asked to step aside.

The Nationals pride themselves on being gentlemanly,at least in this respect. Their leader may be as dishonourable as he likes in his personal life but would never be so craven as to have knifed his leader.

The party worries it could lose up to seven seats in the next election - including Dawson and Capricornia in Queensland,Page and Cowper in NSW and possibly a NSW Senate spot too.

In Queensland,the existential threat of One Nation stiffens necks.

“If anyone believes changing leaders is the answer to a local electorate problem they are making a mistake,” says Member for Gippsland Darren Chester,who supports McCormack.

“Country people vote for their local member,not for the leader of a party.”

Other Nationals I spoke to doubted a spill was imminent. But all leadership positions are thrown open after elections,so Joyce will have an opportunity within six months or so,if not before. It is in his interests to seize power earlier,because after the election he will face a rival in Littleproud.

The big question for his party room,and by extension the voting public,is whether Joyce is too tainted to return to the leadership.

And here is the reason why the question of a Joycean return is so important:if it happens,it will not be in spite of his scandals,but because of them.

If the Nationals party room makes a judgment that Joyce’s well-publicised personal history is no barrier to leadership,it will be because they have made a calculation that it can be woven into his colourful narrative,instead of marking an end to it.

It is unthinkable that a woman in power would ever be forgiven so easily,or allowed that level of personal complexity - we are a country which accepted political attacks on our first female prime minister because she had a de facto partner and a country where female senators can be casually slut-shamed across the parliamentary chamber.

It is equally impossible to imagine any female leader doing a Jacinda Ardern and having a small baby in office without Alan Jones et al screeching themselves hoarse.

But quite apart from the double standard,which seems as stubborn as it is sad,the re-election of Joyce to the Nationals leadership would be a significant step toward the Trumpification of Australian politics - where irascibility takes the place of integrity,and where cut-through is more important than character.

Twitter:@JacquelineMaley

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