Although the Morrison and Berejiklian governments emphasise the importance of economic considerations,the relationship with health costs is not a zero-sum game. The higher the health costs,the worse the economic damage. Reducing deaths and disease reduces economic costs. There are many other countries where control of COVID has been lost for a time. It is not pretty and won’t be if this happens in Australia.
No one should underestimate by now the difficulty for political leaders in managing COVID. Initially,that management in Australia had many strengths. However,recent weaknesses in the strategies adopted by the federal and NSW governments are having serious health and economic consequences.
The contrast with the response of the Hawke government to HIV is stark. The then health minister,Dr Neal Blewett,a former professor of political science,invited the shadow health minister,Dr Peter Baume,a former consultant physician,to discuss the emerging HIV crisis over a cup of tea. Thus began a scrupulously non-partisan,pragmatic,transparent and accountable response that was highly effective,praised by the World Health Organisation and emulated by many other countries.
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Communication of the evolving science was wisely outsourced to an independent organisation,initially led by Professor David Penington and later by Ita Buttrose. Making HIV prevention paramount among men who had sex with men,women who sold sex and men and women who injected drugs was an enormous political challenge in Australia in the 1980s. Yet it was managed.
But now Australia grapples with an ineffective quarantine system maintained despite abundant evidence that it has long passed its use-by date. Federal government bungling of vaccine procurement ensures the states now have to depend on lockdowns to control inevitable outbreaks. These were too little and too late in NSW,guaranteeing lockdowns will have to proceed for a long time,despite political and growing community resistance.
Health interventions generally have both benefits and adverse effects. What matters is that the benefits exceed the costs. Lockdowns need to be maintained for as long as benefits continue to exceed costs.