Another reason is that,on China,America can always leave us stranded. Suddenly,the White House is talking a new relationship with Xi Jinping based on negotiations. All the more reason for us to work hard at diplomacy between the two superpowers.
We’re left a bit exposed because alone of America’s allies we have said we will join America if there’s a showdown,presumably within the first week. It’s almost as if in the corridors of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and the Defence department the hawks are humming the World War I recruiting song,Australia Will Be There.
This begs the question:is there any rigorous analysis by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade on how Australia might help avert war,or whether our diplomats are entirely sidelined and relegated.
It’s not hard to draft an alternative diplomatic script that our Prime Minister,Scott Morrison,and Defence Minister,Peter Dutton,can cleave to. Begin by calling for restraint by all. Specifically condemn talk of the use of force to resolve the dispute. Invoke the role of the United Nations Security Council in maintaining peace and security. Praise the historic restraint from both sides that has seen diplomatic language used to avoid war over Taiwan in the crises of 1954-55,1958 and 1995-96.
Back this with an energetic,behind closed-doors diplomacy to remind China and the United States of the guardrails and off-ramps that both sides need to use to avoid an accidental slide to catastrophe.
Canberra needs to commission a document for the national security committee of cabinet that scripts our leaders to advocate those guardrails and off-ramps. That is,to press Washington and Beijing on the practical measures that would avoid a descent into war.