What explains Andrews’ political resilience? The first answer is that this is less about the premier or his government per se than the ingrained habit of Victorians supporting the left of centre of politics.
Should Labor win next year’s election,the party will have presided over Spring Street for three quarters of the time since this trend in the state’s voting behaviour began in the early 1980s. The default Labor position is also reflected in federal election results during the same period. In the 15 federal elections since 1980,Victoria has sided with Labor on two party preferred terms on 13 occasions.
Yet,the Andrews government has won admirers in its own right. From the moment it came to office in 2014 it has been an activist administration. This is reflected in two spheres.
First is the gargantuan transport infrastructure program which encompasses a dizzying suite of projects. They include the removal of scores of level crossings,the Melbourne metro rail project,an airport rail link,a suburban rail loop,and an array of road extensions and upgrades.
Second is the government’s adventurous social reform agenda that has featured,for example,it making Victoria the first Australian jurisdiction to successfully introduce avoluntary assisted dying regime,and its pioneering of a process for concluding a treaty with the state’s Indigenous communities.
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Victorians might not agree with all aspects of this activity,but they appear to have credited the Andrews government for the fact that it is doing things with power. The extensive legacy that it is building stands in contrast with the minimalist governing style of the federal Coalition government. Indeed,a further factor buttressing Andrews’ popularity is that he provides a counterpoint to Scott Morrison’s inconsequential leadership.
Another ingredient in the resilience of the Andrews government is indeed the premier himself. He is an intriguing and potent combination of political hard man and purposeful reformer. Andrews is the larger than life leader of this state since Jeff Kennett. From all accounts he dominates the decision-making forums of his government. He has an unapologetic crash through approach to criticism,rarely pulling back. He is a skilled performer in the mainstream media and on social media platforms using the latter to woo younger voters.
Andrews’ visibility,which was already high,dramatically escalated during the pandemic. Media analytics show that in 2020 he was the second most prominent politician in the land behind Morrison. Andrews’ handling of the pandemic crisis polarised opinion but few,if any,were left indifferent to him. The baked in majority view of him seems to go something like that he is a tough,decisive and smart leader.
Strong assertive leaders of the ilk of Andrews tend to eventually wear thin with voters who come to want a less domineering style of government. The other moniker that critics try to pin to the premier – “Dictator Dan” – has potential to damage him.
Nor should we overlook the fact that at next year’s election Andrews will be asking voters to extend Labor’s rule to 12 years,which might yet cause the public to blanch. Going by the polls,though,he and his government remain at least at present in remarkably durable shape.
Paul Strangio is associate professor of politics in the School of Social Sciences at Monash University