All this has taken place against the unnerving backdrop of Omicron,the most transmissible variant yet,which is driving case numbers higher than ever. But our exceptionally high vaccination rates,further strengthened by a strong take-up of booster shots,helps ensure people who catch COVID are at a much lower risk of getting seriously ill.
The preliminary data also indicates the Omicron variant is less severe than Delta. Recent estimates from the UK suggest a range from 15 to 80 per cent reduction in the risk of hospitalisation compared with Delta,according to NSW’s Chief Health Officer,Kerry Chant. That’s why even Queensland’s Chief Health Officer has said now is the time to change strategy and allow the virus to become endemic – essentially,to live with it.
It is tempting for some to claim that the pain and disappointment experienced over the past few weeks could have been avoided,and case numbers kept low. But given Omicron’s hyper-transmissibility,the only way to keep its numbers down would be to enforce the most severe lockdown yet:borders shut tight,everyone staying home,workplaces shut down,communities crippled. In short,Christmas cancelled for everyone.
It’s hard to believe anyone really wants that kind of response,particularly because even radical restrictions offer no guarantees – just look at Western Australia and the rapid increase in cases around the country.
As has been the case from the outset,adapting goes both ways. When the evidence told us to move on masks and QR codes,we moved. If higher case numbers translate into a risk of excessive pressure on our health system,we will adapt again,continuing to put safety first,while having society continue to function as much as possible. Our experience so far is that the settings are appropriate,the number of people in hospitals (and especially in ICU) remains manageable,and the death rate has not sharply risen. These are the most important data to which we must now tailor our responses.
With a highly vaccinated population,we’re no longer solving for the problems of 2020,when the objective was zero cases,or at least low cases. A highly vaccinated population demands a new strategy,focused not on cases,but serious health impacts.