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Asked whether he thought this would hurt the federal government’s re-election chances,NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet said “not substantially”. However,it meant that many Liberal candidates have very little time to campaign,while some of their opponents had been in the field for months.
Dr Stewart Jackson,a specialist in Australian politics at Sydney University,said the equation for Prime Minister Scott Morrison was simple:“He has to do really well in NSW;he needs to claw back seats there to offset losses elsewhere.”
The most obvious Liberal target,on paper,is the seat of Macquarie,which takes in the Blue Mountains and Hawkesbury. In 2019,Labor’s Susan Templeman won by just 371 votes,making it the nation’s most marginal electorate.
Sydney’s western suburbs also promise fierce electoral battles. Unless Morrison can pick up seats from Labor in Greater Sydney,it is hard to see the Coalition winning a majority,according to observers on both sides of the political divide.
The Liberals will be eyeing Greenway (ALP 2.8 per cent) where the growth of new,relatively wealthy suburbs in the north of the electorate has been favourable for the party.
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In neighbouring Parramatta (ALP 3.5 per cent),Labor will lose the strong personal vote of long-term member Julie Owens,who is retiring. The party’s new candidate for Parramatta,Andrew Charlton,was an economic adviser to Kevin Rudd when he was prime minister,and currently lives in the wealthy eastern suburbs. The Liberals are running businesswoman Maria Kovacic after NSW Transport Minister David Elliott decided not to put his hat in the ring.
Another perennial marginal is Dobell on the Central Coast,held by Labor’s Emma McBride by just 1.5 per cent.
Labor will also be defending regional NSW seats with small buffers,two of them badly affected by the Black Summer bushfires.
Eden-Monaro,which covers the south-eastern corner of the state,is the ALP’s third-most marginal seat (with a margin of 0.8 per cent),although Labor polled strongly at recent state byelections within the boundaries of this electorate. Gilmore,on the NSW south coast,was Labor’s only gain in the 2019 election (with a margin of 2.6 per cent). But former Liberal state minister Andrew Constance will make a strong challenge for the seat in 2022,and there is concern within Labor about its prospects.
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Also problematic for Labor is the coalmining seat of Hunter,which retiring MP Joel Fitzgibbon came close to losing in 2019. The new ALP candidate in Hunter,Olympic shooter Dan Repacholi,will be defending a margin of just 3 per cent.
But the Coalition will be defending a swag of vulnerable NSW seats of its own against strong Labor challenges,including the inner-west Sydney electorate of Reid (on a 3.2 per cent margin),the Central Coast seat of Robertson (4.2 per cent margin) and the southern Sydney electorate of Banks (6.3 per cent margin). Labor is hopeful of picking up both Reid and Robertson.
Liberal turncoat Craig Kelly,who holds Hughes on 9.3 per cent,intends to recontest his southern Sydney seat for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.
“Some people have said to me that my best option would be to go to the Senate,but I am going to stay and fight for my seat,” Mr Kelly said. “I want to make sure that the 150 UAP candidates across the country have the confidence to fight for their seats,and I would not be sending the right message if I did not do the same.”
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Meanwhile,Liberal incumbents in the once blue-ribbon seats of North Sydney and Wentworth are under threat from well-funded independents.
“We are going to see Liberal moderates come under a lot of pressure from independents in some of Sydney’s affluent,leafy green suburbs where the doctors’ wives live,” said Dr Stewart.
The senior Labor source said member for Wentworth Dave Sharma was “the most exposed MP”. Allegra Spender,the daughter of fashion doyenne Carla Zampatti,is running as an independent in the eastern suburbs seat.
Independent Zali Steggall grabbed Warringah from the Liberals in 2019 and partyinfighting over the preselection of a candidate appears to have undermined the chances of the seat returning to the Coalition fold. LawyerKatherine Deves will run for the Liberals after being parachuted in at the last minute.
Devastatingfloods last month have turned the northern rivers seat of Page,held by the Nationals,into an electoral wild card. The government’s response to the disaster has angered many voters,and it is unclear how much this will influence the result.
Jacqueline Maley cuts through the noise of the federal election campaign with news,views and expert analysis.Sign up to our Australia Votes 2022 newsletter here.