That means Labor’s success at this point,with three volatile weeks to go,is not only about its own performance but also about two other forces at work. First,the incredible gains for the Greens. Second,the shocking weakness of the Coalition.
The Greens have reached a rare height with an increase in their primary vote from 11 to 15 per cent inthe latest Resolve Political Monitor. This is unusual compared to recent elections. The party gained 13.1 per cent of the primary vote at the 2010 election but slumped to 8.7 per cent at the next two elections before climbing back to 10.2 per cent in 2019.
Greens leader Adam Bandt has claimed the attention on “teal” independent candidates in this election could help the Greens elsewhere,such as in the Senate. Voters who like the independent campaigns may not have a “teal” in their seat and could be drawn to the Greens in other seats.
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Resolve director Jim Reed says a proportion of the electorate has been moving against the major parties on issues like climate change.
“Many of them had been parking their votes with generic independents,but as we have removed that option from seats where they aren’t running,this vote has transferred to the Greens,” he says.
This reflects a crucial change in this survey compared to the one conducted two weeks ago. Put simply,this survey has asked respondents about their local independent candidates by name,in line with the ballot paper in their seats. If respondents do not have a “teal” candidate in their seat,it is not given as an option.