“World War III is coming,” was the message that had been taken from the arrival of US forces,according to German Caccam,the mayor of Basco,the sleepy main town on Batan and the provincial capital.
In a panic buying spree,locals hoarded basic goods,preparing for the worst. “The people were worried,” said Ignacio Villa,the vice-governor of Batanes. “The people panicked to secure their own food.”
On the islands of Batanes,which lie in the middle of the Luzon Strait,the passage of water between the Philippines and Taiwan,the anxiety over tensions between the US and China has been felt even more acutely.
“Our problem is this,” Villa said. “If China would invade Taiwan there would be great consequences in our place because we are so near to Taiwan.”
He was unsuccessful,though,in his efforts to persuade Manila to back the construction of a deep-sea port that he believes would now be very useful in the current geopolitical climate.
“The reason why we are not getting government or military security of our islands is they cannot just stand by the islands because there is no safe harbour. My argument was that the port will not be for Batanes alone but would be for the entire country,” he said.
His first stint as governor included the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis when Beijing carried out missile tests around Taiwan. The danger then seemed so distant to the Philippines’ most northern outpost he jokingly quipped to then-president Fidel Ramos that “if[China’s] guided missiles will be misguided ... then Batanes will be hit”.
The heightened friction now over Taiwan,and between China and the US,means it is no longer a laughing matter.
“From the layman’s point of view,if you’re China and I’m[the] Philippines and if I allow the American people to use my island as a main stepping stone for whatever activities they have,then you,China,will make us a target,” he said.
It is an unease shared by Cabardo,the cafe owner.
“[If] the Americans are using our island to help Taiwan ... I’m afraid if that will happen,of course we will be affected,” she said. “This is an island. Where will we go?”
‘We will have a lot of refugees’
An hour’s drive along Batan’s west coast from Basco,at the other end of the island,is a reminder of the historical US presence here. The white brick building on the shoreline there was once a long-range navigation station for the US Coast Guard.
Closed in 1971,these days it is a museum showcasing Ivatan culture. With the American outpost long gone,the only permanent security position now is north of Batan on Mavulis,an otherwise uninhabited,2.2 square kilometre island less than 100 kilometres from Taiwan.
There,at the farthest end of the Philippine archipelago,a small contingent of about two dozen marines and police serve on six-month rotations.
According to Caccam,the Basco mayor,one of those posted there scribbled on the wall of the small shelter they live in that it was “the loneliest place in the world”.
It is technically the country’s first line of defence but,sparked into activity by the community reaction to recent US military drills,officials in Batanes have been looking to get out in front of any conflict themselves.
Since April,they have drawn up contingency plans to prepare for a scenario in which China attempts to seize Taiwan or war breaks out in their vicinity in another way.
Caccam said the planning includes developing the capability to erect a “tent city” to accommodate thousands of refugees – there are 150,000 Filipino workers alone in Taiwan – and facilities for extra food and water provisions.
“First,[there is] the repatriation of Filipinos in Taiwan going home. Of course,they will use Batanes as the transit point,” he said. “So if Batanes is a transit point we will have a lot of refugees. Our first concern is the food,water. We have food here[for the existing population] but for refugees,we are not ready for that.
“We raised those concerns and issues with the US ...[and asked] if they can help us. They are willing to.”
Caccam,a former primary school teacher in Basco,said he had not supported the US-Philippine military training exercises coming to the island.
“I don’t like it. We are living peacefully here,” he said. “We are a potential target because of the presence of[the] Americans.”
The provincial government did not oppose the war games.
“The national government explained to us the good side[of the exercises] and all about Balikatan,” said Villa,the vice-governor.
“It’s not the first time the Balikatan exercises have come here for different purposes,not only because of the Taiwan dispute. We have been helped by the United States.”
At the same time,regional leaders have also been heavily involved since April in drafting a strategy for an unwanted future.
Batanes imports rice and other products from the Luzon,the Philippines’ main island,and Villa said the possibility that those transport links in the Luzon Strait could be severed,isolating it further,had to be taken into account.
“We produce our own foods but it is not enough. There are other commodities that we really need from the mainland,” he said. “We have supplies for three months[to] six months[but] once the transportation would be cut we’d be hard up.
“Batanes is very small,Batanes is poor. Our finances our just enough for our constituents.
“The influx of refugees who could be coming from Taiwan ... it would be a national concern,a Philippine concern.”
‘The message for America is we need them’
Marcos has stressed that the additional military bases opened up to the US are not about providing Washington with a forward operating position in advance of possible hostilities with China.
“The foreign minister of China just visited with me ... and I told him and I assured him that no,these are not ... intended to be military bases to attack,to move against anyone,any country,not China,not any country,” he said during a recent visit to the US where he also called on President Joe Biden at the White House.
It is a message emphasised by the US. Its embassy in Manila said at the time the locations of the sites were announced that they were to support interoperability with the armed forces of the Philippines,and were not about a third country. US Ambassador MaryKay Carlson has also said “everything that we do in the Philippines is at the invitation of the Philippine government”.
China,however,did not take the expansion of the deal well. Its top representative in Manila,Huang Xilian,accused the Philippines of “stoking the fire” and advised it to oppose Taiwan’s independence if leaders cared for the tens of thousands of Filipinos living there.
There have been questions as well from within the Philippines,whose location makes it strategically crucial in the superpowers’ rivalry,about handing the US keys to bases facing Taiwan rather than attention being squarely on the South China Sea,where Manila’s maritime sovereignty is undermined by Beijing.
In March,Imee Marcos queried the approach of her brother’s government conducting drills “a stone’s throw or at least a boat ride away from Taiwan”,asking whether US access to northern bases meant the Philippines was “going to fight for ... the United States?”
Rommel Banlaoi,a former national security adviser in the Philippine government,believes the EDCA expansion is escalating tensions in the region.
“Unfortunately,the Philippine government has its own reasons on why it wants EDCA to be expanded ... and that is to facilitate improvement of Philippine military facilities there with the support of the United States,” said Banlaoi,the chairman of the board of advisers at the China Studies Centre at New Era University in Quezon City.
“But the United States has a greater agenda. For me,the United States’ agenda is clear. The US is really making military preparations for possible conflict with China in the Taiwan Strait,in the South China Sea and possibly in the Korean peninsula. The Philippines is a very valuable country for the United States to strengthen its strategic positions.”
It is a view challenged by Jose Antonio Custodio,a fellow at the Consortium of Indo-Pacific Researchers,who sees the US pact as a crucial deterrent and whose only concern is whether the Philippines will stay the course in reinforcing the alliance as well as ties with Australia and Japan.
He said the six-year presidency of Duterte,who steered the country closer to China,was a wake-up call that could not be ignored. Duterte’s daughter Sara is Marcos’ vice-president and his likely successor in 2028.
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“[EDCA] is a positive and very much delayed development because all of this was put on the backburner by Duterte,allowing the Chinese to build up their influence in the Philippines and trying to restrain and even push back the allies,” Custodio said.
“We have a problem with the Chinese,who are intruding in our exclusive economic zone. They are laying claim on the entire South China Sea. The Philippines doesn’t have the necessary capability to defend[itself] unilaterally against this,so it enjoys a mutual defence treaty with the United States.”
Back on Batan,Castillejos,the two-time former governor,is edgy about a show being made of US military training on the island.
But he is also supportive of Marcos’s pivoting towards Washington and the likes of Australia.
“To me,he’s on the right track to create this kind of bilateral or multilateral relations because the Philippines cannot stand alone,” he said. “The message for America is we need them.
“I always pray and believe that war will not come because no one will be the winner.”
- with Jeoffrey Maitem
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