A recentNew York Times/Siena College poll,for instance,showed Trump going from a four-point lead on Biden across five key swing states to a 10-point deficit if he’s convicted. Such a shift,which has also been emulated in several other polls,could severely dent the Republican’s chances of returning to power.
Abortion
If you want a sense of how much this issue cansway votes,look no further than the 2022 midterm elections and last November’s state-based races in Ohio,Kentucky and Virginia.
In both cases,Democrats defied expectations,partly due to lingering concerns about the Supreme Court’s decision tooverturn Roe V Wade,which granted women in America the constitutional right to an abortion.
At the midterms,Biden fended off a widely expected Republican “red wave” that could have led to Democrats losing control of both houses in Congress (instead they held on to the Senate and only narrowly lost the House).
And last year’s state elections also provided the party with a glimmer of hope.
In Republican-led Ohio,the majority of voters agreed to enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution;in Kentucky,the incumbent Democratic governor,Andy Beshear,was re-elected over his anti-abortion Republican opponent;and in Virginia,the Democrats won control of the state legislature after popular Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin campaigned for a “sensible limit” to abortion that would have banned most terminations after 15 weeks.
The results were a resounding victory for the Democrats,and a sign that the issue is a stronger galvanising force than the drag of Biden’s sagging approval ratings.
The US Supreme Court
In recent years,America’s highest courthas curtailed abortion access,expanded the right to carry guns and has given religion a greater role in schools and businesses.
Now,the US Supreme Court is set to play a starring role in the 2024 presidential election as it determines the fate of Trump. Months after being charged by Special Counsel Jack Smith for trying to overturn the 2020 election results,Trump is now seeking immunity from prosecution,arguing that the case should be tossed out because it arose from actions he took while in the White House.
On Thursday (AEDT),Trump appealedColorado’s contentious decision to remove him from the ballot in that state’s Republican primary race at the Supreme Court. The latest legal move comes after the state’s top court found Trump had engaged in an insurrection and was therefore disqualified for office.
If the court overruled Colorado,such a decision could have national implications for the election because multiple other states have also faced legal challenges to remove Trump from their ballots using the same clause of the US Constitution,but in many cases,those challenges have been rejected or remain in limbo.
Third-party candidates
As it stands,the 2024 US election will most likely end up being a choice between an uninspiring octogenarian incumbent and a twice-impeached,four-times-indicted former president. But the fact that many Americans are unenthusiastic about both Biden and Trump provides fertile ground for third-party and independent candidates to shake up the contest.
The most well-known so far isRobert F Kennedy jnr,the scion of one of America’s political dynasties,who split from the Democrats in October to run as an independent.
Progressive activist Cornel West is also attempting an independent run;retiring West Virginia senator Joe Manchin hasn’t ruled it out;and the third-party centrist group No Labels,run by moderate Republican Larry Hogan,the former governor of Maryland,is securing ballot access for a yet-to-be-named candidate.
Loading
While the chances of a third-party candidate winning the election are minimal,a recent Gallup poll suggested that up to 63 per cent of Americans believe a “third major party is needed”. To that end,the likelihood of several extra candidates on the ballot could end up bleeding votes from Biden or Trump – and ultimately make all the difference in a very close election.
Biden can’t finish the race …
While it might be uncomfortable to discuss the life expectancy of a sitting president,there’s no escaping the fact that Biden isn’t getting younger or fitter. The 81-year-old is already the oldest person to occupy the White House and would be 86 by the end of his second term.
Indeed,the Democrat’s age and overall ability to do the job are among the key reasons many voters,including Democrats,would prefer an alternative candidate. A recent poll by Monmouth University found that only three in 10 Americans approve of his job performance – his lowest rating since he took office and the worst of any modern-day president seeking re-election.
His handling of immigration is under growing attack thanks to the record number ofpeople illegally crossing the US-Mexico border;his failure to back a ceasefire in Gaza has cost him support among progressives and young people;and his message about a strengthening economy simply isn’t resonating.
Biden has said he’s running because he believes he’s the only Democrat who can beat Trump – and that he may not have sought re-election if it weren’t for his incendiary predecessor. But if Trump doesn’t end up being the Republican candidate,or if the president’s poll numbers continue to dive,or if his health takes a serious or fatal turn,the election will turn on its head as Democrats scramble to install another candidate.
Buckle up,folks,it’s going to be an election year like no other.