Labor insiders acknowledge the fuel standards worried voters. Some are stunned the government chose to announce the policy on February 4,seemingly complacent about the risks in Dunkley.
None of this was enough to give the Liberals the victory they wanted. And the Liberals did not have the burden of former prime minister Scott Morrison,who was so unpopular in Victoria at the 2022 election.
They had Dutton instead – and it is hard to see this outcome as a big personal endorsement for his leadership. While he visited Dunkley several times,he chose not to be in front of voters on polling day.
Albanese was also cautious:he visited several times,and did many more radio interviews than Dutton,but avoided turning this byelection into an obvious test of his leadership.
Albanese is vindicated,nonetheless,on his decision on personal tax cuts. The sudden overhaul of the stage 3 tax cuts reset the economic debate in January and was a smart call with Treasurer Jim Chalmers and federal cabinet. The government knew from the start that 87 per cent of voters in Dunkley would receive a bigger tax cut from the changes.
Having won the seat of Aston from the Liberals last year – a real shock to the opposition – Albanese has now held Dunkley for Labor. That is a better outcome than some of his own side would have predicted at the end of last year,when Labor was struggling to devise a convincing answer on household costs.
There were no scandals with either candidate. Nathan Conroy appeared to perform well for the Liberals,while Jodie Belyea also campaigned effectively. That means the outcome is about bigger forces than those individuals.
Advance Australia,the conservative campaign group,used its cash to try to shift votes with advertising,especially on social media,but its final impact looks modest. It did not have volunteers who could hand out how-to-vote pamphlets at polling stations in large numbers.
The spin from both sides has been shameless.
“People say that the swing of 2 or 3 per cent would be a devastating outcome for the prime minister because that would be without historical precedent,” said Dutton on Friday. Wrong.
“The average swing against government is 7.1 per cent,” said Albanese on Friday. Wrong.
The ABC’s chief election analyst Antony Green says the average swing against governments in byelections since federation is a little under 4 per cent. When Green looks at results since 1983,he calculates the average swing is 3.5 per cent.
The outcome on Saturday was,in a word,average. And Dutton needs to be better than average.
Labor held ground on its primary vote. The Liberals made a modest gain. And there was no proof that Dutton has the strategy in the suburbs to clinch the next election.
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