Tolls on the Eastern Distributor are $9.38 for cars and $18.76 for trucks. The six-kilometre motorway is one of 13 toll roads in Sydney controlled and operated by Transurban.
Macquarie’s analysts said the rush by the government on Monday torule out scrapping refunds for motorists who use the M5 motorway in Sydney’s south-west highlighted the political constraints of reform.
“It is ultimately the toughest issue for government in any reform;namely,there will be winners and losers,” they said.
Illustrating the political risk if Fels’ plans are adopted,charges for cars on the M7 motorway in Sydney’s west would increase on average by 9 per cent without a toll relief scheme. However,if the subsidy was in place,it would fall by almost 8 per cent.
The M7 is Transurban’s largest toll road by volume of traffic in Sydney after WestConnex,averaging 196,000 vehicle trips a day.
The analysts were not surprised by the proposal for two-way tolling on the Harbour Bridge and Tunnel,as well as the Eastern Distributor,saying they anticipated it would have to be done by the time the $7.8 billion Western Harbour Tunnel between Rozelle and North Sydney opens in 2028.
Internal documents have previously revealed Transurban warned the then Coalition government in late 2019 that construction of the Western Harbour Tunnel would not be financially viable unless tolls on the Sydney Harbour Bridge and existing motorway tunnel rose significantly.
Early analysis in Fels’ interim report says Sydney’s north shore and eastern suburbs might be worse off if the tolling proposals were adopted because motorists from those areas were likely to be affected by the two-way charging on the Harbour Bridge,Tunnel and Eastern Distributor.
Loading
However,the analysis suggests the proposed network tolling was favourable for motorists in Sydney’s north,south and west. Fels has said the initial shake-up would aim to collect the same total revenue from motorists and generate the same total revenue for toll operators.
Modelling shows the average tolls paid by cars and motorcycles under Fels’ network tolling plans would be $7.33 a journey in 2026,compared with $8.50 if no changes occur. If a subsidy was introduced to lower tolls for all motorists,the average price would be $6.19.
The tolls would include infrastructure charges ranging from 50¢ to $6 when using the Harbour Bridge or major motorway tunnels.
One of Fel’smain recommendations is that the government legislate to create a state-owned authority to set tolls across Sydney’s motorway network and ensure greater market competition.
Loading
The Macquarie analysts warn the use of legislation is likely to result in Transurban and other large investors taking legal action against the government for breaching long-term tolling agreements.
Premier Chris Minnshas not committed to any recommendations in the Fels report,saying on Monday that any changes to tolls or relief measures needed to be considered through the prism of whether “the vast majority of voters would be better off as a result”.
Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories,analysis and insights.Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.