But with the nation’s most stringent state election funding caps,optional preferential voting and the glaring absence of the all-important “Scomo” factor,pollsters say repeating the success of federal teals on issues like integrity and environment will be an uphill battle.

The latest exclusive polling conducted for theHerald found cost of living,including rising grocery prices,utility bills and housing,was by far the No. 1 concern for NSW voters – 50 per cent said it was their top priority – while only 10 per cent nominated climate change as their biggest concern.

Five of the NSW teal challengers – Jacqui Scruby in Pittwater,Joeline Hackman in Manly,Victoria Davidson in Lane Cove,Conway in North Shore and Judy Hannan in Wollondilly – have received financial backing from Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 organisation,which also backed high-profile Sydney candidates Allegra Spender,Kylea Tink and Sophie Scamps in the federal poll.

NSW electoral funding laws cap donations from individuals at $3300,while the total spending cap for independent candidates is $198,700 per campaign - a drop in the ocean compared to the $4.6 million spent by justthree winning “teal” candidates in NSW during the federal election. In Victoria’s recent state election,where strict funding caps also applied,teals failed to flip seats in seven seats.

In Willoughby and Vaucluse,candidates Larissa Penn and Karen Freyer pitch themselves as teal but are not linked to Climate 200,while the independent vying to snatch Wakehurst,Michael Regan says he is categorically “not a teal”.

Penn is making her second run against Liberal Tim James in the seat formerly held by premier Gladys Berejiklian,after already slashing his margin 21 per cent to just over 3 per cent in a byelection last year. The seat gained two suburbs from the neighbouring Lane Cove electorate in the recent boundary redistribution.

Wakehurst,the seat of retiring Health Minister and Liberal stalwart Brad Hazzard,could be under threat too. Popular high-profile local mayor Regan is seen as a genuine contender and Liberal candidate Toby Williams,who worked in Hazzard’s electorate office,is fighting to hold on to the northern beaches seat.

Scruby,who wants to claim Pittwater from retiring senior minister Rob Stokes,ran the successful campaign for federal teal MP Sophie Scamps. She said tapping into the same grassroots base activated last year allowed for a lean campaign.

As for being one of five Climate 200-endorsed candidates,Scruby rejected any suggestion they acted like a political party,insisting the candidates were connected only by the group’s 11,000-strong crowdfunding community.

“Of course there are the top-level motherhood values of integrity,climate and equality that are true to all the campaigns and yes,they reflect the values of the 11,200 donors,but that’s where it ends,” she said.

Holmes a Court has argued that,despite some good work in its energy policies,the NSW Coalition government was let down by the number of coal and gas projects it had approved since the Paris Climate Agreement was signed.

Scruby is considered a strong challenger to local councillor Rory Amon,who is fighting to retain Pittwater,which Stokes has held since 2007. Stokes leaves on a margin of more than 20 per cent.

Thirty-four kilometres away,Davidson is in the thick of her own fight to seize Lane Cove from incumbent NSW Planning Minister Anthony Roberts. The senior right-wing Liberal has held the seat for two decades with a current margin of 14 per cent.

Davidson says she hears deafening opposition to Roberts,his voting record (he voted against decriminalising abortion and legalising voluntary assisted dying) and aggressive local development under his watch.

But some election watchers say the planning minister’s aggressive approach to increase housing supply amid the affordability crisis could,in fact,buttress him.

State v fed differences

Pollster Jim Reed,whose firm Resolve Strategic conducts the Resolve Political Monitor for the Herald andThe Age,said funding caps,along with the state’s optional preferential voting system,will pose the biggest hurdle for independents who would otherwise have relied on preferences.

In a federal election voters must number every box,but ballots in the state election are valid if they only contain a preference for a single candidate.

Reed said he expected polling day to serve up a “goldilocks” balance between the federal election and the Victorian state election.

“Neither a big wave of new MPs,nor a strike-out for the teals. That’s because the drivers behind those wins and losses – people,party,policy and performance judgments – are different in NSW,” he said.

The latest Resolve surveyhas Labor on track to win,with a primary vote of 38 per cent,while the Coalition is sitting on 32 per cent. With 30 days to go,one-quarter of voters were still undecided about whom to support.

Resolve also found independents have made ground with a primary vote of 13 per cent compared with 5 per cent at the 2019 poll. (Since then,the number of independents in NSW Parliament has grown because three Shooters,Fishers and Farmers quit their party.)

On policy,Reed said many of the policies that generated interest in teals federally – climate,integrity,women in power,a focus on local issues would not necessarily translate.

While not perfect,he said,“the NSW Coalition has done more than the Morrison government in those areas,while campaigning on the feel-good policy of cashless gaming”.

“I suspect that there are three to four close contests that might result in one or two teal wins,among them the seats of North Shore,Lane Cove,Pittwater and Manly,” Reed said.

But parliament’s most influential independent,Member for Sydney Alex Greenwich is more hopeful,buoyed by the prospect of one of the biggest crossbenches the NSW Parliament has ever seen.

He said the presence of Climate 200-backed candidates,like Hannan in Wollondilly and Hackman in Manly,had already pushed the Coalition to have stronger policies on climate,highlighting their potential to enact change.

“Regardless of the election outcome,the crossbench is going to have a critical role in the next parliament negotiating every possible bill and probably negotiating what the government looks like. That will strengthen the integrity of legislation because of diversity of the views,” he said.

“While they may have restrictions on money,they do have the grassroots campaign backing. That’s what got me elected,that’s what got Clover Moore[his predecessor] elected,” he said.

Greenwich sits on the crossbench along with other key independents Greg Piper and Joe McGirr. His support for the minority Coalition government has helped him achieve major wins on landmark legislation legalising voluntary assisted dying and decriminalising abortion.

He has already warned both major parties of legislation,like cashless gaming and bans on gay conversion therapy,that will be critical to his support in a minority government.

“I think the parliament is better served by having more members not beholden to political parties.”

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