“Other polls are now picking up the narrowing vote position we identified late last year as the Barilaro affair died down,but in the last few weeks we’re actually seeing those gains halt,if not start to reverse,” Reed said. “That’s hardly surprising when the Liberals have had to put out so many internal fires recently.”
Perrottet’s campaign has been weighed down over recent weeks by theresignation of finance minister Damien Tudehope over a shareholding scandal (he was cleared of knowingly breaching the ministerial code of conduct) and upper houseMP Peter Poulos for distributing explicit images of a colleague.
When Gladys Berejiklian won government in 2019,the Coalition’s primary vote was 42 per cent,while Labor’s was 33 per cent.
Voters also seem to think Labor will be victorious next month. Asked,“Regardless of who you would like to win the next NSW election due in late March,who do you think will actually win?” 37 per cent listed Labor. However,34 per cent said it was too close to call and 28 per cent said the Coalition.
“That’s important because that measure goes beyond personal preference to take in what people really think of their performance and chances,including what they’re hearing from their social networks,” Reed said.
When voters rated the performance of both leaders in recent weeks,45 per cent ranked Perrottet as good overall,while Minns was rated the same by 43 per cent.
Voters were asked if they believed the two leaders had a “united party behind them”,with only 23 per cent indicating that was true for Perrottet,compared with 35 per cent for Minns.
Perrottet and the Coalition also trailed on a range of other areas of political performance,including communicating well,listening and being focused on the right issues,and being honest and trustworthy.
However,the Coalition was slightly ahead on competency,and Perrottet and Minns were ranked equal on the question of “offering strong leadership”.
The survey also shows independents have made ground,with a primary vote of 13 per cent compared with 5 per cent at the 2019 poll. Since then,the number of independents has grown because three Shooters,Fishers and Farmers quit their party.
Other parties,which include One Nation,have a primary vote on 7 per cent.
Five Climate 200-backed teal candidates are contesting seats on Sydney’s north shore and Wollondilly in the city’s south-western fringe,and several other independents are running,including the three former Shooters MPs.
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Former Liberal minister Gareth Ward is recontesting his seat of Kiama as an independent. Ward was suspended from the parliament and the party after he was charged with sexual assault in March 2022. He has denied any wrongdoing and remains before the court where the matter is scheduled to be heard after the election.
Perrottet has insisted the Liberals will contest the coastal seat but it is one of at least a dozen electorates in which the Liberals are yet to preselect a candidate. Nominations close with the NSW Electoral Commission next week.
Labor could also face a serious threat in its usually safe seat of Cabramatta,where former ALP member and Fairfield Mayor Frank Carbone is likely to run as an independent. Carbone was a major supporter of independent Dai Le,who won Fowler in the federal election.
The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 803 eligible voters from Wednesday to Sunday,a period that followed a significant focus on the Liberal Party’s internal woes,including Perrottet’s brothers,Charles and Jean-Claude,former Liberal state executive member Christian Ellis and councillor and electorate officer Virginia Ellis,Christian’s mother,refusing requests to face a parliamentary inquiry.
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