The Victorian Liberals – whose past six months can,at best,be described as self-destructive – are holding on to hope that Andrews pulls up stumps soon. As one despondent Liberal (is there any other kind?) said this week:“Putting Jacinta in charge gets us back in the game.”
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This observation should be viewed as a long-overdue recognition that Andrews has been key to Labor’s success. Liberals have spent two elections insisting the premier was hated,but it appears it has finally dawned on them that,while divisive,he has earned voters’ respect.
As one such Liberal figure put it recently:“We know people don’t like him,but they don’t like him in the same way they don’t like their dentists. It doesn’t really matter. If he gets the job done,they respect it.”
There is no doubt that when Allan – or another roughie – takes over as premier,the race will tighten. They won’t have Andrews’ longevity and popularity,and it’s likely any successor will struggle to emulate his internal control.
Should Allan succeed Andrews,she will take on the top job in perilous circumstances. Infrastructure projects are facing lengthy delays,there’s the cost of living crisis and billions of dollars in new taxesare doing little to bring down the state’s debt. It’s as if she is being set up to fail.
This presents a classic“glass cliff” phenomenon where women are routinely promoted to leadership roles ahead of a downturn when the risk of failure is high.
The term was coined by researchers at the University of Exeter in 2005 after they set out to discover why appointing female business leaders often resulted in a drop in the share price and performance of the company.
Their research identified a misleading correlation between female leaders and business failure. Instead,they discovered women and members of ethnic minority groups seemed to be given opportunities when a business was heading over a cliff.
Many Liberals and even some Labor MPs are willing to sit idly by in the hope that Labor falls apart. But simply banking on your opponent’s failure is not an election-winning formula. It also ignores the obvious hurdles ahead for the conservative side of politics in Victoria.
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Talk of replacing Pesutto as Liberal leader has quietened down. This is not because of a new wave of affection for the opposition leader,but due to the lack of an obvious successor,andthe impending Warrandyte byelection.
This faux discipline is unlikely to last.
Deeming may have been expelled from the state partyroom,but the saga has,in the eyes of some,elevated her from upper house backbencher to martyr of free speech and women’s rights. It has exposed a widening riftbetween the state and federal teams.
If you wanted an insight into her support base,look no further than an event being held in Caroline Springs later this month when Deeming will appear alongside federal Liberals Alex Antic,Sarah Henderson and Claire Chandler for a celebration of “Liberal Party values in the West”.
Deeming’s continued popularity in the party and her planned legal action against Pesutto will ensure that leadership speculation isn’t confined to Labor.
Annika Smethurst is state political editor.
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