Sixty independent and Catholic schools were initially selected to pay the tax,but the governmentbackflipped again in August,adjusting the rules so any school that crossed the threshold would be subject to the levy. The PBO said that decision was yet to be formalised in any document,and it was not yet known how many schools would pay the tax next year.
The PBO said it had sought but hadn’t received information from the Department of Education to prepare its report.
Instead,it used the similar but not identical ACARA measure for “fees,charges,and parent contributions” per student to assess whether schools were likely to exceed the threshold. It also used long-term growth patterns of about 4.2 per cent per year to project future income.
The PBO said it expected fees would continue to rise.
“By 2026,we project that average non-government school fees will grow to be 77 per cent higher than they were in 2010 and 23 per cent higher than they were in 2021,” the report said.
Rossbourne School principal Shane Kamsner said his students did not come from wealthy families and there was significant concern in the school community about possible fee rises.
“If we were to pass on the payroll tax,it would be a significant increase in our fees,” he said. “Our parents would find it very,very difficult.
“I’d like the government to do its own due diligence and make sure that they understand the impact that they’re going to have on each school,rather than put each school into the same bucket.
“I understand that there are a number of very wealthy independent schools,but they are not the majority. The majority of independent schools are not big elite schools,they’re more middle of the road,and there are some struggling independent schools.”
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Wilson said the revenue raised from the 18 additional schools would not pay two days of interest on Victoria’s budget debt.
“Victorian parents who work hard and make sacrifices to send their children to a school of their choice are being punished for the incompetence of the Labor government,” she said.
“This analysis confirms that Labor’s hit list is only set to grow and that hundreds of additional families a year will be forced to pay Labor’s tax on education.”
Wilson said if elected,a Coalition government would scrap the tax on schools.
Independent Schools Victoria chief executive Michelle Green said the PBO list included schools serving the needs of “hard-working aspirational families with no,or extremely limited,capacity to absorb it”.
“The only way to avoid the tax is to not increase fees,even by a modest amount,” she said. “This is impossible,given rising cost pressures and the need to main services for students.”
Green said broadening the tax net breached a written commitment non-government schools had been given at a meeting with Department of Education officials on July 27 that the list of schools liable for the tax would be held constant until January 1,2029.
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Catholic Education Commission of Victoria executive director Jim Miles said schools subject to the tax would need to cut learning programs or building plans,or increase fees at a time when cost of living pressures were already “biting hard”.
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