Premier Jacinta Allan.Credit:Eddie Jim
The second problem with big projects in a hurry is that if megaprojects are consistently under-costed,the government is likely to systematically over-invest in these projects.
This not only distorts investment decisions,it misleads the public. We are led to believe that a particular project is available to us for less than it really is.
Yet governments almost never go back and discover how the actual costs and benefits of a completed project compare with the costs and benefits that were promised. If they do go back,they rarely share their findings with taxpayers. It’s impossible to know how much cost blowouts from megaprojects have cost Victorian taxpayers under the Andrews government because that information is not disclosed transparently to the community.
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The third problem with doing big things in a hurry is that they don’t form part of any cohesive plan for Victoria’s transport system. Despite legislated requirements,Victoria has lacked a coherent,overarching transport strategy for years. In 2021,a Victorian auditor-general’s report stated that the government was not complying with its legislated responsibility to have an integrated transport plan. Rather,the auditor-general said,Victoria had a scattering of plans – and many of these were incomplete or not available to the public. Infrastructure Victoria has also recommended the government publish an integrated transport plan as soon as possible.
Some would argue that without taking some gambles,we wouldn’t have ended up with transformative projects such as Sydney’s Opera House and Harbour Bridge. But there are an infinite number of potentially transformative projects.
Without projects being carefully scrutinised,it’s difficult to know what the objectives are,if there are better ways of achieving those objectives,and if we are overlooking better projects in their favour. Think about what we could do with the $50 billion to $200 billion the Suburban Rail Loop is expected to cost. For that kind of money,we could see huge improvements in train timetabling and high-capacity signalling,better bus services,lower public transport fares,safer and smoother roads,and much more.
A good place for Premier Jacinta Allan to start would be one of the 94 recommendations in Infrastructure Victoria’s 30-year transport strategy,most of which have been ignored by the Andrews government in favour of projects that have never been recommended or assessed.
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Skyrocketing construction prices and a mammoth debt problem in Victoria have led to some sensible decisions in recent months. The Andrews government canned the Commonwealth Games,and delayed major projects,including the popular Airport Rail. The federal government is trying to give some more teeth to Infrastructure Australia,and has conducted a review of its pipeline of major projects. These are good steps towards an infrastructure strategy that is focused on projects that bring the most value to Victorians,not provide the best ribbon-cutting ceremonies.
This is the path our new premier should follow. Pausing,planning,and focusing on providing the infrastructure that will benefit Victorians most. It will enable her to leave a legacy not of big,rushed projects,but of a liveable,connected,sustainable Victoria. The first step is binning the Suburban Rail Loop.
Natasha Bradshaw is a researcher in Grattan Institute’s Transport and Cities Program.