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Peculiar to this current blow-up is that the political argument is largely about gestures and language rather than concrete action. The demand from Palestinian protesters that Anthony Albanese totally denounce Israel,which he’ll never do,won’t change the fighting in Gaza. But it could hurt Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell,where 13 per cent of the electorate has Middle Eastern ancestry and her margin has already been cut by 8 per cent in the past two elections.
In the other direction,Wong daring to use the word “ceasefire” is not going to make a speck of difference in Israel. But it might cause Josh Burns to lose Macnamara,which is already highly marginal,and has the highest proportion of Jewish voters in the country.
It’s close to the point where no statement,no perspective from the government can be uncontroversial.
Beyond any direct political problems this might cause for the big parties,and especially in this case the ALP,it doesn’t do much for the wider community’s ability to understand and debate the issues in a rational way. And it challenges the long-held expectation that multiculturalism would guarantee greater tolerance of differing views.
The Israel-Palestinian question has been unresolved for almost 80 years. It is unbelievably complicated,and what happened on October 7 and every day since has more than likely pushed resolution further into the distance. It appears that most Australians look at it that way – as an incredibly saddening and difficult situation a long way from here. The latest Resolve Political Monitor suggests that a majority of voters oppose public protests by those on either side of the dispute. A big majorityopposes Australia contributing military equipment,which must come as a blow to Peter Dutton,who last month recommended offering Israel military assistance. Dutton’s language is verging on the hysterical and can only sow further division.
During question time on Wednesday,Dutton addressed the prime minister,saying,“Therefore,[we] call on the prime minister to one,understand that … his priority must be the protection of the Australian community at home,cancel his plans to travel to the United States …[and] urgently convene a national cabinet meeting to formulate a strong and coherent response to combat the rise of antisemitism,repair social cohesion and protect community safety.”
As the diasporic vote increases and intensifies in specific geographic locations,the politics of these issues change,and the views of the wider,less engaged majority can start to lose their electoral primacy. That’s why ministers Tony Burke,Jason Clare and Chris Bowen,and Vamvakinou,who hold the seats with the highest proportion of Middle Eastern voters in the country,will speak with more empathy about the residents of Gaza. They have to.
Will it make a difference? The easiest thing for the government to do,as a junior United States ally fully signed up to the AUKUS pact,would be to go all in with Israel,much as the US has done. But its MPs represent by far the biggest proportion of Australia’s Muslims,and the electoral power of those constituents can only grow. Just one more knotty problem for the government to add to its list.
Shaun Carney is a regular columnist.