In a meeting of Labor MPs on Tuesday,Albanese emphasised the difficulty of holding on to the seat,vacated by deceasedformer MP Peta Murphy,which was previously marginal but has become safer due to a redrawing of boundaries and the Coalition’s poor standing in Victoria.
“[Albanese] referred to the average swing against a Labor government in these byelections being 7.1 per cent. We hold the seat by 6.3 per cent,” a Labor spokesman said of Albanese’s remarks. He was referring to the average swing against governments since 1983.
On ABC radio on Monday,Albanese said:“We know it’s tough,but we’re out there putting the case. And we’re also saying that Peter Dutton’s got nothing to offer.”
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But his message was contradicted by Dutton who latched onto a different set of statistics – the average swing since WWII,and the average against first-term governments – to lower expectations of a Coalition win.
In a private meeting of Coalition MPs,Dutton questioned Albanese’s statistics. He noted that the average swing away from governments in Labor versus Liberal contests since 1945 was 3.6 per cent and just 1.5 per cent against first-term governments such as Albanese’s.
“The idea that an opposition could come in and win a byelection with 6.3 per cent – that’s a very,very big ask and we know that,” a Coalition spokesman said of Dutton’s remarks.