On the Dutton factor,however,most commentators are dead wrong. Typical was Bruce Hawker,one of Labor’s most trusted strategists,who opined:“If I were Albanese … I certainly wouldn’t be hitting the panic button. …[T]here are no signs of any great enthusiasm for Dutton. He is not capturing the imagination of the Australian public.” If Labor is heeding advice as bad as that,no wonderLiberals are happy. Apart from the fact that it is empirically wrong –Dutton’s approval has steadily climbed in recent months and,after the strength of his performance in the last fortnight can be expected to climb still further – Hawker’s observation entirely misses the point.
Opposition leaders don’t have to be liked in order to win. Perhaps the reason so many Labor insiders don’t get that is because on the occasions Labor takes office,the atmospherics are so different from coalition victories. When Gough Whitlam won in 1972,on the back of Labor’s skilful “It’s Time” campaign,he seemed positively Messianic (an impression he did nothing to discourage). In 1983,Bob Hawke appeared a folk hero,the embodiment of the national reconciliation he promised. We all remember the Kevin 07 phenomenon. Last year,although Albanese had less political wattage than the other three,he played the “good bloke” card to perfection.
On each of those occasions,the change of government was accompanied by high hopes,great expectations,and soaring rhetoric that gave plenty of hostages to fortune.
The circumstances in which Liberal prime ministers come to office have tended to be different. Usually,it has been after a period – in the case of all but the Hawke-Keating government,a relatively short period – of Labor government during which the dreams have turned to dust,the economy has hit the wall,and the public has seen through the tinny idealism to glimpse the cold light of day.
When Australians elect Liberal governments,they’re looking not for Messiahs but saviours. Which is why the popularity of Liberal opposition leaders has never much mattered. Remember when Labor ministers literally uncorked the champagne when they heard that Tony Abbott had been elected Liberal leader in 2009? How did that go for them?
When John Howard was elected in 1996,he was still seen by many as yesterday’s man – he had yet to achieve the stature that 12 years in office brought him. But at least he wasn’t Paul Keating,whom the public had grown to loathe. After the constitutional crisis of 1975,Malcolm Fraser was an unpopular figure,even with many who voted for him,but Australians were so desperate to put behind them the embarrassing circus of the Whitlam Government,he won in a landslide.