This is most evident in his decision to oppose theCoalition’s plan to replace stamp duty on real estate transactions with an annual land tax.
Perrottet’s plan,which offers buyers the option of choosing whether to pay a large up-front stamp duty or a small annual land tax,has been welcomed by the majority of economists and indeed by reformist former Labor prime minister Paul Keating.
But Minns this week confirmed he would reverse the policy with very little explanation for why he is ignoring the weight of expert opinion.
Rather than argue the substance of the policy in terms of efficiency and fairness,Minns has so far only justified his opposition with a simple slogan that plays on people’s fears of change.
He calls land tax a “forever tax” in a phrase that is reminiscent of Tony Abbott’s simplistic “great big new tax” line about the carbon tax.
Minns has also chosen a populist slogan over substance in his response to the rising cost of energy,which is one of the most urgent issues confronting households.
Most economists blame the sudden jump in electricity and gas prices on the war in Ukraine and the flood damage to NSW coal-fired generators. Minns says,however,it has been caused by privatisation of the NSW power sector.
Choosing privatisation as a scapegoat might appeal to the union-dominated base of Labor but it is a mystery why privatisation,which happened more than five years ago,can explain the surge in prices this year.
If he wants to be credible,Minns must explain what he wants in practice and how it will help households deal with the crisis.
Regrettably,Minns has also this week shown a lack of interest in reform of NSW’s huge gambling industry.
Perrottet on Thursday took a principled and brave decision to take on the might of the state’s licensed clubs and hotels. He said he backed introducing a cashless gaming card to help fight problem gambling and the billions in dirty money flowing through the state’s poker machines each year.
The measure has been recommended by several inquiries including one last month by the NSW Crime Commission.
But Minns hedged and cited a report by the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation in July 2020,which said that some gamblers might gamble more with cashless cards because the “pain of payment″ is lower than when using cash.
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The report is important but Minns is quoting its finding out of context. It says that if cashless cards are designed to force problem gamblers to pre-commit to maximum losses over a certain period,they offer “significant potential” to minimise gambling harm.
It may well be that Minns can simply coast to victory,given the damage to the Coalition brand caused by the Morrison government and by the division and scandals of the past few years.
But he will come to power at a time when the state faces serious challenges,from the energy crisis to the pressure for wage rises from public sector unions,all while managing the debt incurred during the pandemic,which is forecast to rise to $78 billion at the end of this financial year.
He should stop the slogans and give more concrete guidance of how he plans to deal with these problems.
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