Minns must go beyond slogans to seal victory
Minns must go beyond slogans to seal victory

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This was published1year ago

Editorial

Minns must go beyond slogans to seal victory

With less than six months until the NSW state election,on March 25,the gap between the two major parties has narrowed,but it still looks like Labor leader Chris Minns’ to lose.

The latest Resolve Political Monitor,conducted for theHeraldby research company Resolve Strategic,recorded a major improvement in the Coalition’s share of the vote and,to a lesser extent,in Premier Dominic Perrottet’s approval rating.

Labor’s first preference support was a whopping 43 to the Coalition’s paltry 30 back in September,when the government was mired in the John Barilaro scandal and facing criticism for its response to floods.
The Coalition has made up some ground in the past two months and its first preferences are now 35 to Labor’s 38.

Minns was 1 percentage point ahead of Perrottet as preferred premier in September,but he has slipped back slightly to 1 percentage point behind.

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While the poll now puts Perrottet back within striking distance,the betting must still be on Minns. Labor’s lead on the primary vote is still significant and Minns is at roughly level pegging with Perrottet,which is remarkable for a relatively unknown opposition leader.

Many voters are clearly hankering for a change of government after 12 years of the Coalition. The government is looking tired.

Yet now that Labor is the frontrunner,between now and March,voters should look closely at its positions and its leader.

Minns has certainly been effective in exploiting the government’s obvious failings and it is hard to point to a foot he has put wrong in purely political terms.

But he has also shown a tendency to policies based on populism rather than sound economic reform.

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This is most evident in his decision to oppose theCoalition’s plan to replace stamp duty on real estate transactions with an annual land tax.

Perrottet’s plan,which offers buyers the option of choosing whether to pay a large up-front stamp duty or a small annual land tax,has been welcomed by the majority of economists and indeed by reformist former Labor prime minister Paul Keating.

But Minns this week confirmed he would reverse the policy with very little explanation for why he is ignoring the weight of expert opinion.

Rather than argue the substance of the policy in terms of efficiency and fairness,Minns has so far only justified his opposition with a simple slogan that plays on people’s fears of change.

He calls land tax a “forever tax” in a phrase that is reminiscent of Tony Abbott’s simplistic “great big new tax” line about the carbon tax.

Minns has also chosen a populist slogan over substance in his response to the rising cost of energy,which is one of the most urgent issues confronting households.

Most economists blame the sudden jump in electricity and gas prices on the war in Ukraine and the flood damage to NSW coal-fired generators. Minns says,however,it has been caused by privatisation of the NSW power sector.

Choosing privatisation as a scapegoat might appeal to the union-dominated base of Labor but it is a mystery why privatisation,which happened more than five years ago,can explain the surge in prices this year.

If he wants to be credible,Minns must explain what he wants in practice and how it will help households deal with the crisis.

Regrettably,Minns has also this week shown a lack of interest in reform of NSW’s huge gambling industry.

Perrottet on Thursday took a principled and brave decision to take on the might of the state’s licensed clubs and hotels. He said he backed introducing a cashless gaming card to help fight problem gambling and the billions in dirty money flowing through the state’s poker machines each year.

The measure has been recommended by several inquiries including one last month by the NSW Crime Commission.

But Minns hedged and cited a report by the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation in July 2020,which said that some gamblers might gamble more with cashless cards because the “pain of payment″⁣ is lower than when using cash.

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The report is important but Minns is quoting its finding out of context. It says that if cashless cards are designed to force problem gamblers to pre-commit to maximum losses over a certain period,they offer “significant potential” to minimise gambling harm.

It may well be that Minns can simply coast to victory,given the damage to the Coalition brand caused by the Morrison government and by the division and scandals of the past few years.

But he will come to power at a time when the state faces serious challenges,from the energy crisis to the pressure for wage rises from public sector unions,all while managing the debt incurred during the pandemic,which is forecast to rise to $78 billion at the end of this financial year.

He should stop the slogans and give more concrete guidance of how he plans to deal with these problems.

Bevan Shields sends a newsletter to subscribers each week.Sign up to receive his Note from the Editor.

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